When I came across this post by Ashok Chavda, where he says that he has premonition that second Indo-China war is on anvil, may be after the Beijing Olympics, over the unresolved issue of Arunachal Pradesh; I thought was it possible? No doubt China is using Arunachal Pradesh as one of the pressure card, but with International community watching and China desperately trying put up a ’good boy’ image, would China mount an offensive against India over the unresolved border issue of Arunachal Pradesh? Least chance, I thought, though they would continue to keep this issue unresolved as long as eternity to mount pressure on India.
But this report has made me sit back and wonder.
There are more indications Beijing is making serious preparations to enter the next war between India/Pakistan to enforce China’s claim over Arunachal Pradesh in northeast India. Satellite images studied by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) have revealed launch sites for medium range ballistic missiles in and west of Delingha in north central China. DNA-India report the missiles based there are the DF-21 a medium range ballistic missile of 1,330 miles (2,150 km) China’s first solid fuel rocket and carries a single warhead of 200-300 kilo tons. Hans Kristensen, a researcher with the FAS stated, "From these launch pads for DF-21 missiles, southern Russia and northern India will be within range but not Japan, Taiwan or Guam." It is not Japan, Taiwan, Guam or Russia Beijing has territorial disputes with but India for control over India’s northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh which China invaded for one month in October 1962.
...The DF-21’s range brings all of Arunachal Pradesh and Indian defenses there within striking distance. Missile launch sites were detected along a 170 mile (275 km) stretch of highway leading from Delingha west through Da Qaidam to Mahai in northern Qinghai province.
Apart from the missile launch sites that targets India and Russia, there is a report of China deploying large number of Jin class submarine at a naval base on Hainan Island near South China sea.
There are clear signals that China is strengthening it arsenal that could pose a long-term threat to India’s security.
Recently, the Indian Navy Chief had expressed concern over the number of nuclear submarines China is acquiring. Admiral Sureesh Mehta said though India is not worried about Beijing building a strategic naval base on the Hainan Island near South China Sea, it is concerned about the numbers.The Navy had been tracking the developments on the Hainan island for sometime now but the recent reports carried high resolution satellite images of the base. The images showed that China has deployed its new Jin class submarine at the base.
Hi,
No, a "war" in the old sense of the term is not likely. Not only because of China's "good boy" image, but because nuclear deterrence and transformed geopolitical relationships (US is likely to side with India).
Your assessment is right. The Chinese will not "resolve" the border dispute, because it serves their interests to use it to exert pressure on India every now and then.
For that reason, we should not show anxiousness to "resolve" it. We should just "be the change we like to see".
Quote1 :
No, a "war" in the old sense of the term is not likely.Not only because of China's "good boy" image, but because nuclear deterrence and transformed geopolitical relationships (US is likely to side with India).
Agreed war is unlikely but not for reasons above.The Chinese are a highly goal-oriented and proud nation, they are least bothered about good or bad boy image( as shown by history), but by their interests. It is India which hankers after "good boy" image by West, a sign of its inferiority complex.
Nuclear deterrence did not prevent the Chinese taking on the US in Korea( Chinese nil:US 500warheads?) and USSR in 69(Chinese 50 :USSR 8000warheads)so this is self-delusion similar to Nehrus.
USA A-N-D USSR, UK, France sided with India in 62', did it prevent their attack or slow their advance? Well, the Indians surrendered the Western weapons and the Chinese made many copies since then:)
Quote2 :
Your assessment is right. The Chinese will not "resolve" the border dispute, because it serves their interests to use it to exert pressure on India every now and then.
Agreed. And also because the Indian Govt is held hostage by the opposition from any compromise formula.
Quote3 :
For that reason, we should not show anxiousness to "resolve" it. We should just "be the change we like to see".
WTH??
Which state do you come from? What callousness!Arunachalis became " Indians" by an accident in history ,and have resigned to our fate.You may have all the time in the world to pontificate on the finer points of Indian nationhood and such from your comfortable perch but we have been made the sacrificial goats of the Indian( and Chinese)intransigence and hairsplitting for 60 years now. We no longer want to wish to bear the burden of " national security" or " national pride" on our backs any longer .The Indian govt must make serious attempts to resolve this dispute in the interests of its citizens in AP. More and more educated Arunachalis are coming to the conclusion that the Indian Govt cares more for petty politics than our interests, mark my word--by which I mean a level playing field and not addictive & demeaning monetary grants like DONER.
AG,
Ashok Chavdas post is a load of opinion not grounded on facts. It doesnt even need a discussion. Suffice to say, war is not waged on " Premonitions":)
The other link you gave is laughable too.The Chinese already have ICBMs capable of reaching any corner of the Earth for more than 2 decades now ,then why is the fellow fussing about DF-21 range??
And this hysteria about China " strenghtening" its arsenal and Submarines is a joke--which country, including India doesnt??
Such anti-China hysteria is what is making India not approach the border problem sincerely.Result--AP still in stone age.
@Nitin,
Glad to see you here.
@Buru,
Nice to see you back commenting again.
It's not that I believe on any arguments that is put forth without any facts, least to say on 'premonition'. I was just wondering if a 'war' at all is likely at this time. Ashok Chavda might have that 'premonition' after seeing Chinese come down heavily of Tibetan protesters :)
Stop being stupid and paranoid. China and India are destined to become trading partners, not enemies.
"Stop being stupid and paranoid. China and India are destined to become trading partners, not enemies."
i see nobody here stupid or paranoid except you. maybe you should stop speaking from your rear end and actually give some valid points next time?
When I read Ashok Chavda's blog, I laughed, but when thought about it deeply, I felt that it chappen. an happen.
Those who says that China can not attack should remember that even or nothe Prime Minister Nehru said that once. and when he was reciting "hindi chini bhai bhai' Mao was preparing to mule him.
China is in trouble now, because of the massive eararunachal pradesh wikith quack and may not be in a position to claim Arunachal Pradesh now. but all other reports indicate otherwise.
They made entire nation of Tibet a suzerain country. now exploiting it to maximise their advantage. Arunachal Pradesh is part of what we call NEFA, or Outer Tibet. Those who do not understand history, should not comment on politics. because, for every political move, there is a history back up.
In 1914, when the British, Sovereign Tibet and China sat in Shimla to sign a treaty on border issue, China backed out and since then it is claiming entire Tibet.
If their intentions are clear, why would they say that any Arunachali can travel to China without a visa.
Why would they intrude severel time in Arunachal Pradesh. The MP of Arunachal Pradesh, has said this on record in Lok Sabha recently.
War or no war, It is better to be on our guards.
AG
quote"Such anti-China hysteria is what is making India not approach the border problem sincerely.Result--AP still in stone age."unquote.
VK krishna menon thought exactly like you, and had to eat back his words in 1962.
and...what do you mean by AP still in stone age. that would make Chinese more aggressive towards their Tawang policy. For your information,
in Chinese Maps,
They have already divided Tawang, i.e. AP, in six districts.
Toronto, ON, Canada, — The peace along India's northeastern border with China has been disturbed in the last five years by the aggressive buildup of roads and military infrastructure on the China side, as well as the recent completion of a rail line to Lhasa, the capital of Tibet. The border, marked in 1914 as the McMohan Line, is active once again.
China scored a major victory in 1962 when it uprooted the Indian Army from the border town of Tawang. China later withdrew, and things were quiet until five years ago, when Chinese efforts to upgrade the area's infrastructure began again.
China's main aim is again the town of Tawang. Capturing it would catapult China into the master of Asia. China is confident of another military victory, based on its huge military buildup in the last 5-10 years, fueled by piles of cash earned by exports.
read more on http://www.upiasiaonline.com/Security/2008/03/25/chinas_designs_on_indias_northeast/7412/
Last 2 anonymous,
why dont you choose a name so that we keep track of who is speaking to whom?
Your post is too jumbled up, and the only sensible thread is that you think Ashok Chavdas post is accurate. Well, somebody has a 'premonition'China is going to attack India after Olympics( i.e. within months)without solid backup does not require a rebuttal.
VK krishna menon thought exactly like you, and had to eat back his words in 1962.
I did not say China wont attack India ever, but that Chavdas imminency is unrealistic.Also Krishna Menon was discounting Chinese attack when the two armies were already skirmishing all along the border for several years.No such thing now.
and...what do you mean by AP still in stone age. that would make Chinese more aggressive towards their Tawang policy.
AP is in stone age by both National & International standards of development,thats why I said so. Do you expect me to lie for'" national security"LOL!
***
The longer the Indian Govt delays solving AP, the more likely Chinese claim will grow stronger. Why?
1.Dalai Lama dies--the Tibetan movement will lose momentum and they may well accept Chinese suzereinty fully. Then the Tibetans themselves will pressure China to take back AP, or at least Tawang from India. Tawang and West Kameng was under Tibet till 1950.
2.The more Chinese economy expands, they will need massive doses of power and water.So the temptation to recapture AP will rise too.
So its in Indias interest to solve this dispute sooner than later.
Someone quoted "China has already divided Tawang into 6 districts", but do we really see or feel that happening or bringing even a minute change to our retrospections pertinent to AP. Neither it did earlier nor will it later.
So why make a fuss or waste time upon a neighbour-next-door who is simply bent on pestering others. Neither they are willing to relent to the demands of Tibet or nor will they succumb to India's deafening calls of AP being integral to it, which is a relevant fact(atleast in today's scenario). Let them shout.
'62' can't be certainly repeated - not in this life time atleast.
I came across an interesting article yesterday(22nd may issue) under the Brief Case heading in TOI( I can't remember the name of the author - probably swapan gupta ...??). It was cornered mainly on India's reaction about recent Bush's remark about 'rising income of Indians' being the reason of global food shortage. Right after this, incident Indians all over the country and abroad started pouring out their reactions through papers, journals, in internets and all over.
Thing to reckon - Millions of Indians just wasted billions of minutes upon something which is baseless and would never fetch any good result, atleast for us.
Why make the same out of china's bogus claim? Let them rant their frustrations, let them waste their time on some pretty fantasies - we Indians shouldn't atleast in this matter.
Instead of reacting through words, Indian govt should start taking some proactive steps to develop AP thus cutting out the possible ramifications of such uncalled chinese claims in future.
Time to improvise and move forward - atleast one step ahead !
Regards
Rome
Fellows,
A country that has the capability to send rockets (essentially projectiles) into space must, by default, have the capacity to shoot missiles into another country.
Both India and China have that capacity. The question is I think about accuracy rather than speed.
accuracy rather than speed ?
Do you mean all of the rockets ever launched by India has been a failure but unlike the chinese counterpart?
Shocking revelation it is!
I think the rocket is all about accuracy then the speed. So once you clear the step1, you proceed for step 2.
:)
Arunachali,
Sure, it requires accuracy to put a rocket in space. But it is not sent up there, as you evidently assume, in slow motion.
Missile accuracy is something else. Just count the times India's missile tests went haywire.
dear anonymous,
So you mean to say, because of number of the missile launch failures(probably higher in count than china's)of India is the reason, China capacitates of launching the same to any other nation, unlike India, which has been claiming preposterously all these years of having come up with successful intercontinental missile launches, prithvi,agni etc per se.
please let us know what makes you take doubt on India's missiles accuracy? Maybe a resourceful hint that could let us see the same.
Thanks.
what we arunachalis are going to do in the event of another Indo-China war?